Those we call Presidents, Premiers, Dictators, Leaders, Rulers, etc., are all humans…But in discussing serious international relationship problems, it seems as if psychological factors are not important: They are usually put aside and replaced with euphemistic diplomatic courtesies. For sure: Diplomacy is much more preferable than warring–But not when diplomacy trumps sound reasoning. When seeking to improve human relationship problems–Reasoning that does not value, and proceed, based on psychological factors, can be judged as unsound, sometimes ineffective, and often dangerous.From Vladimir Putin’s own words expressed in interviews; and his demeanor, related to his perception, and his dissatisfaction with Russia’s fall from glory and greatness (an unacceptable state he is determined to redress): It seems a reasonable assumption, that he ordered his army to invade Ukraine as a “Second Stage” on his quest to return Russia to it’s former greatness.
The “First Stage” involves becoming Russia’s “President For Life”. (Like his ‘friend’ XI’s goal in China.) Vladimir Putin is determined to “Make his country great again”. His goal is to return his country to it’s former glory, and historical international status”…Not wanting to alarm people–With his selected group of supporters: Putin engineered staying in power–Just for a while…Until 2036 …for a start (first stage).
If he is to achieve his goals, it can be assumed that Vladimir will very likely not step down comes 2036. But to pursue the second stage of his goal: Vladimir recognized and feared one very challenging, serious problem: What he saw as a problem in conflict with his goal to regain Russia’s Glory and Greatness…And for him to be Ruler for Life…was Ukraine: Ukraine’s ongoing development was “Much, too much…Too big…Too dangerous a problem to be ignored. Whatever the cost: Ukraine had to be dealt with.”
The threats Putin, his inner circle, and his very rich supporters saw, were Ukraine’s ongoing economic, technological, cultural advancement, democratization, westward leaning, efforts to join NATO, etc. Putin, and his inner circle, saw these trends as threats to his power, and threats to their accumulating wealth, power, and status. The threats had to be dealt with. Ukraine could not be allowed to continue developing. (Applying the principle of “Least action-Least energy”, one can assume that it was easier for Putin to order the Russian army to attack Ukraine, than for him to create, institutionalize, and pursue ways to improve the welfare of the Russian people.)
Some assumptions. It can be reasonably assumed: Vladimir and his inner circle, realized that “If Ukraine was allowed to keep up its pace of advancement, many of The Russian People could not avoid noticing this. Many would start comparing their relative stagnation, to Ukraine’s ongoing development.”
Vladimir could not help thinking that “In noticing how much they were left behind by Ukraine…More of the Russian people would think of him as politically, creatively incompetent…and a poor leader.” He would not be able to pursue his goals, if “The Russian people (those who were not die-hard supporters), held him responsible for their miserable state.” They would get more impatient, more angry, and more belligerent. They would become less fearful…A “What do we have to lose attitude” attitude would emerge”. There would be more ‘unlawful’ protests. His dictatorship would be in jeopardy…He would not be “Ruler For Life”…His determination to be recognized as the resurrecting agent, the one returning Russia to its former glory, greatness, and rightful international status, would be dashed to pieces. He could not, would not, allow this to happen. The Ukraine had to be controlled. Vladimir felt compelled to invade.
On Social Diplomacy. The internet and social media, have enabled many of us to become ‘Diplomats’…Skilled at presenting ourselves…to the world: Our causes, our ideas, fears, hopes, concerns, interests, and protests. The kind of diplomacy I am thinking of is based on the undiplomatic, radical, memorable, “Man to Man” example, left us by president Reagan R.I.P… When he said to the President of Russia: “Mr. Gorbachev…Tear down that wall”.
An idea: Those of us concerned, and saddened with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine—Appalled by “The indiscriminate killing of women, men, children, babies…destruction of homes…people fleeing for their lives, seeking asylum in other countries, the suffering of the people of Ukraine, the worldwide problem he has created: In support of the people of Ukraine, we could protest, by sending as (friends, individuals, groups, clubs, colleagues, etc.), through social and other media, “A Woman to Man”, “Man to Man”…Open letter to Vladimir Putin.” That’s the least we can do. (Below is my open letter…in the form of questions.)
Questions.
(1) Vladimir. Would you consider it a gross misunderstanding, and an uncalled-for malicious slander, if someone said “Vladimir. In invading Ukraine. You are acting as if you believe that the world is not big enough for both Russia and The Ukraine?”
(2) Vladimir. Do you think you would be a better President… especially, “Due to the increasing demands”–You would do a better job as President–You could start moving Russia towards greatness…If you had both Russia and The Ukraine under your control?
(3) Vladimir. How will the Russian people benefit, and be better off, by your being in control of Ukraine?
(4) Vladimir. Do you think, being in control of Ukraine, will be enough to “Make Russia great again”? If not…What else will it take? What else will you have to do?
(5) Vladimir. Will you create institutions to ensure that Russia never again lose its Greatness and Glory?
(6) Vladimir. Do the Russian people have a part to play in regaining and maintaining Russia’s glory and greatness? Will you allow the Russian people the freedom to contribute?
(7) Vladimir. How did Russia become great?
(8) Vladimir. How did Russia lose its glory, greatness, and its International stature?
(9) Vladimir. Are you aware that empires and nations did not make themselves “Great”?
(10) Vladimir. Are you aware that it was not the size of their army and navy, their technological power and accomplishments, their economic strength, their successful conquests, the extent of their plundering and massacres, the range of their colonization, their enslavement, etc., that made empires and nations great? That it were historians and others that awarded the symbolic prize of glory and greatness?
(11) Vladimir. Are you aware that those earlier notions, valuing, and esteem, of glory and greatness, are no longer thought of, or applied to individuals or nations? (Empires having disappeared.) In those earlier times, Rulers were expected to go out with, or send their army, to plunder, massacre, and return triumphantly with treasures they stole. If your invasion of Ukraine…Bombing cities, and indiscriminately killing children and babies, is no longer considered great: What will you do? How will you get the international world to bring back “Glory and Greatness? Will you establish your own Up-to-date Russian notion of “Glory and Greatness”?
(12) Vladimir. Does the Russian army really need help from China? What will you say if some think you are just trying to show the world that you have an ally…That you have a friend in XI?
(13) Vladimir. Does it matter to you, if most of the present international world, will, for the rest of your life, think of you as second to that other monster “Hitler”?
(14) Vladimir. Does it matter to you, that in the history books–long after you are gone: You might not be thought of, or referred to…as “Vladimir The Great”…But “Putin The Horrible”?
(15) Vladimir. If you fail to return Russia to its former glory and greatness…Can you cope with that?? Can you live with that???
(16) Just one more thing. Vladimir. How would you respond to someone who said “Vladimir. Your invasion of Ukraine; your bombing of cities (homes, maternity wards, hospitals, clinics, theaters, killing of mothers and babies), the misery you brought to the people of Ukraine…These actions made you, not just “a war criminal”, but “a criminal”. And as a criminal, the people of Ukraine could proceed with “A class action suit” against you, for for your criminal actions against them.”
Vladimir. I challenge you to respond to these questions. Here is your chance to “Let the world know you are not as bad, not as awful, not as cruel, not as evil…Not the barbarian, people think you are”.
Milton Dawes